Court blow on Lalu may trigger fresh political and social equations

Court blow on Lalu may trigger fresh political and social equations

There is nothing quite as telltale as the silence of a politician gasping for a political resurrection at a time when the court decision in 17 year old fodder scam case has already tighten screw on oxygen tap. And the silence of a man like former Bihar Chief Minister and RJD chief Lalu Prasad, whose essence must surely lie in his mouth, speaks tomes. The CBI court PK Singh in Ranchi held him guilty; awarding him five years of rigorous imprisonment and a fine of Rs 25 lakh in nation’s one of the fabled and infamous embezzlement fodder scams. Judicial guillotine will rob Lalu off his membership in parliament. Lalu turned nervous when the court pronounced punishment since conviction comes along with six year bar on contesting election. Uneasy, though silent Lalu behind the bar at Birsa Munda Central Jail in Ranchi; must be thinking and applying techniques to mend the crisis but there is scramble and chatter of succession of Lalu Prasad. Lalu’s conviction may open multiple possibilities in Bihar that may affect template of   national politics. “Yes, it is an hour of crisis and we know how to deal with it. Forces opposed to social justice and our growing base in Bihar have done this conspiracy. We know what Congress is doing and who conniving with whom,” senior RJD leader Raghuvansh Prasad said. But there is a prospect lumbering, off course, that Lalu’s physical absence from the public stage in the run-up to 2014 may create a leadership deficit at the top of the RJD. It may well trigger new socio-political alignments that could alter the shape of the next Lok Sabha. After the scam finally broke in 1996 Lalu’s remained a frequent jail visitor — six times not less — in the fodder scam case costing his Chief Ministerial position. Though, he got his wife, Rabari Devi as Chief Minister who was Lalu’s rubber stamp but an embarrassment for the party, often. But his seventh jail journey has come with emboss of conviction on corruption charges on his white color which will be hard to erase. His party will have a tough time to rework Muslim Yadav combination plus anti Nitish Kumar vote for an electoral gain. The RJD camp is seething with anger and blames Congress as an untrustworthy partner which is courting the Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar for the JD (U) Congress tie-up. “I hope Laluji might have got sense of how Congress could be poisonous. From the first day I was opposed to any tie-up with Congress but it was the wishes of Laluji. The court judgment is blow on us. Well we will go to the public telling them conspiracy behind conviction. But a conviction is a conviction…dent on his image has already been made,” a senior RJD said who doesn’t want to be quoted.  And in the given mood of the nation none will like to tie-up with Lalu. In short, Lalu is the only asset of his party and the biggest liability too. Can RJD hope for an alliance with the Congress? It appears less feasible a prospect. A Congressman said: “You have seen how Rahul Gandhi violently reacting over controversial ordinance to save convicted politicians it should be read in context of Bihar too.” Has Congress entered into any deal with the JD (U) in Bihar?  But politically suggestive and seductive noises and voices indicates an alignment indeed in the making ahead 2014 general elections. Lalu’s conviction has come as a promise for bonus for Nitish Kumar and the BJP dent in the RJD fold which has just started flapping helplessly. Nitish Kumar is eying on entire chunk of 15-odd per cent Muslims and sections of the backward vote to add into the Pasmanda Muslim-Kurmi-Mahadalit vote arithmetic. Yadavs constituting 14 percent of entire Bihar population have stuck by Lalu Prasad and the RJD through the worst of times. But it has become a prime target of the BJP and Narendra Modi who has made considerable impact on Bihar’s OBC segment. Months before this judgment, RJD MLC Nawal Kishore Yadav praised Narendra Modi as the most promising leader on the political scene. Yadav was suspended for an open Modi praise. It was an indication of disturbing restiveness among Yadavs re-examining options to shift allegiance. After all, Yadav remained power centre for a decade in Bihar and it may well consider other options to politically sustain. Nitish Kumar and the JD (U) with known leaning towards the Kurmis; Yadav may not accept a Kurmi leadership. But the BJP having couple of prominent Yadav leaders; the community has a case to look towards the BJP. The meeting Sadhu Yadav (brother-in-law of Lalu Prasad) with Narendra Modi a month back, was yet another indication of influential Yadav section seeking realignment with the BJP. At this moment, the RJD working out strategy to keep its Yadav flock together saying their leader will return to fight for them. But when and how, remain moot questions. The severe judicial banishment of RJD boss Lalu Prasad may well affect his legislative career as he will be technically be disqualified to contest any election for coming 11 years unless he manages acquittal from high court or supreme court It will be too early to write political obituary of Lalu Prasad but a succession battle has started in the RJD in right earnest.  Soon after the verdict his wife Rabri Devi announced mother and son (Tejaswi) will run the party on the line of Sonia Gandhi Rahul Gandhi tandem in the Congress. But many in the party are loath to work under them. Rabari for her sizeable political deficiency and Tejaswi who is trying admission in political kindergarten neither possess charisma, nor the magnetism of Lalu Prasad which helped the party to stay alive despite the last two electoral mandates delivered a severe blow on the party. “People are reaching to premature conclusion about the future leadership. Lalu is our head. We will run the party through consensus. I can’t comment who is trying to step into his shoes,” Raghuvansh Prasad took an indirect dig on Rabrai Devi. If Lalu’s stay in the jail continues for a long and Rabri insists taking over the party it could well nudge a few RJD leaders like Raghuvansh Prasad, Abdul Bari Siddiqui and Jagadanand Singh with considerable mass base to seek other pastures. “In 1997 when Lalu Prasad had brought her out from the kitchen to install as Chief Minister when he was sent to jail in the fodder scam case she was the necessity of a certain hour of crisis. This situation doesn’t exist this time because it is not a few hours of crisis and also as Chief Minister and leader of Opposition Rabri Devi betrayed no taste for politics, even less for governance. We don’t know what is going to be this time. If Laluji returns back even if convicted it will a partial relief,” a senior RJD leader said.  There was a time not so long ago in Bihar when Lalu Prasad was the master of all he surveyed, imperial of demeanour, invincible of stature. On September 30 when the court held him guilty, a stunned Lalu said: “Yeh kya ho gaya ji,” and then a long silence. The judge was quietly pronouncing judgment only Lalu Prasad and his flocks were restive.